Brazil’s future in the BRICS bloc hangs in the balance as Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, holds a narrow lead over leftist candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of the October 25 presidential runoff. A post-first-round poll by PoderData/Aya shows Bolsonaro at 53% support compared to Lula’s 47%, widening his margin since the October 4 vote where he secured 47.03% against Lula’s 45.16%.
A Shift in Alignment
Flávio Bolsonaro, 35 years younger than the 80-year-old Lula, has signaled a dramatic departure from his father’s foreign policy approach. In June, he stated that on his first day in office, he would reassess Brazil’s membership in BRICS, which he described as “highly ideological” and critical of U.S. dollar dominance. His two-page foreign policy platform makes no mention of BRICS, instead prioritizing OECD accession and stronger ties with the United States, Israel, and Argentina.
The stakes extend far beyond domestic politics. Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America and a founding member of BRICS, alongside Russia, India, and South Africa. The acronym itself was coined in 2001 by Goldman Sachs’ Jim O’Neill, with Brazil positioned at the front of the grouping. With recent additions including Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, and Indonesia, the group has evolved from a loose economic forum into a platform increasingly aligned with dedollarization efforts. In 2019, BRICS was a low-cost talking shop of five, but today its agenda leans openly towards dedollarisation. This shift has drawn sharp criticism from the Trump administration, which has threatened tariffs against nations supporting what it calls BRICS’ “anti-American policies.”
Trade trends complicate the potential exit. Brazil exported nearly $100 billion in goods to China last year—almost triple its $37.7 billion in sales to the U.S. Over 80% of Brazil’s soybean exports went to Chinese buyers, none of which flows through BRICS mechanisms. Analysts argue that economic ties with Beijing would constrain any rapid pivot toward Washington, pointing to Brazil’s roughly 20% stake in the New Development Bank as the primary institutional link to the bloc.
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However, the current geopolitical climate differs significantly from previous administrations. Under Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil resisted U.S. pressure to exclude Huawei from its 5G rollout and maintained BRICS membership despite ideological alignment with Washington. Now, with Donald Trump openly endorsing intervention in Brazilian elections and imposing trade sanctions in retaliation for Jair Bolsonaro’s prosecution, the younger Bolsonaro may face fewer internal constraints. A formal exit from BRICS could serve as a low-cost gesture to satisfy U.S. demands while preserving key trade relationships.
Institutional Leverage and the New Development Bank
The bank’s leadership role has also become a diplomatic tool. Lula appointed former president Dilma Rousseff as board chair, reinforcing Brazil’s influence over the institution’s direction. A successor government might pursue different appointments or policy directions, signaling a broader shift in how Brazil engages with multilateral development frameworks. These changes would carry weight beyond symbolic gestures, affecting actual investment flows into emerging markets.
Rare Earths and Strategic Resources
Brazil’s control over nearly a quarter of global rare earth reserves contrasts sharply with its minimal production capacity, making it a strategic target for both Washington and Beijing. The September completion of USA Rare Earth’s $2.8 billion acquisition of Serra Verde demonstrates how foreign investors are positioning themselves ahead of potential policy shifts. Backed by substantial U.S. financing, the deal signals intent to establish a foothold in Brazil’s critical minerals sector. The transaction was supported by a $565mn loan from the US International Development Finance Corporation and $750mn from the Department of War.
Lula’s recent signing of a critical minerals law established an interministerial council with authority to approve and prioritize projects. This body currently acts as a gatekeeper for resource development, but under a Bolsonaro administration, it could function more as a facilitator for Western-linked ventures. Ongoing talks on a federal minerals accord with Washington have stalled due to concerns over preferential access clauses, highlighting tensions between national sovereignty and external investment pressures.
